Chapter 25 Larger Contingency Tables
What will we do with tables describing data from more than two categories at a time, returning to the notion of independent (rather than paired or matched) samples? The chi-square tests we have already seen in our twobytwo table output will extend nicely to this scenario, especially the Pearson \(\chi^2\) (asymptotic) test.
25.1 A 2x3 Table: Comparing Response to Active vs. Placebo
The table below, containing 2 rows and 3 columns of data (ignoring the marginal totals) specifies the number of patients who show complete, partial, or no response after treatment with either active medication or a placebo.
| Group | None | Partial | Complete |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 16 | 26 | 29 |
| Placebo | 24 | 26 | 18 |
Is there a statistically significant association here? That is to say, is there a statistically significant difference between the treatment groups in the distribution of responses?
25.1.1 Getting the Table into R
To answer this, we’ll have to get the data from this contingency table into a matrix in R. Here’s one approach…
T1 <- matrix(c(16,26,29,24,26,18), ncol=3, nrow=2, byrow=TRUE)
rownames(T1) <- c("Active", "Placebo")
colnames(T1) <- c("None", "Partial", "Complete")
T1 None Partial Complete
Active 16 26 29
Placebo 24 26 1825.1.2 Manipulating the Table’s presentation
We can add margins to the matrix to get a table including row and column totals.
None Partial Complete Sum
Active 16 26 29 71
Placebo 24 26 18 68
Sum 40 52 47 139Instead of the counts, we can tabulate the proportion of all patients within each cell.
None Partial Complete
Active 0.1151079 0.1870504 0.2086331
Placebo 0.1726619 0.1870504 0.1294964Now, to actually obtain a p value and perform the significance test with \(H_0\): rows and columns are independent vs. \(H_A\): rows and columns are associated, we simply run a Pearson chi-square test on T1 …
Pearson's Chi-squared test
data: T1
X-squared = 4.1116, df = 2, p-value = 0.128Thanks to a p-value of about 0.13 (using the Pearson chi-square test) our conclusion would be to retain the null hypothesis of independence in this setting.
We could have run a Fisher’s exact test, too, if we needed it.
Fisher's Exact Test for Count Data
data: T1
p-value = 0.1346
alternative hypothesis: two.sidedThe Fisher exact test p value is also 0.13. Either way, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that there is a (true) difference in the distributions of responses.
25.2 Accuracy of Death Certificates (A 6x3 Table)
The table below compiles data from six studies designed to investigate the accuracy of death certificates. The original citation is Kircher T, Nelson J, Burdo H (1985) The autopsy as a measure of accuracy of the death certificate. NEJM, 313, 1263-1269. 5373 autopsies were compared to the causes of death listed on the certificates. Of those, 3726 were confirmed to be accurate, 783 either lacked information or contained inaccuracies but did not require recoding of the underlying cause of death, and 864 were incorrect and required recoding. Do the results across studies appear consistent?
| Date of Study | [Confirmed] Accurate | [Inaccurate] No Change | [Incorrect] Recoding | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1955-1965 | 2040 | 367 | 327 | 2734 |
| 1970 | 149 | 60 | 48 | 257 |
| 1970-1971 | 288 | 25 | 70 | 383 |
| 1975-1977 | 703 | 197 | 252 | 1152 |
| 1977-1978 | 425 | 62 | 88 | 575 |
| 1980 | 121 | 72 | 79 | 272 |
| Total | 3726 | 783 | 864 | 5373 |
25.3 The Pearson Chi-Square Test of Independence
We can assess the homogeneity of the confirmation results (columns) we observe in the table using a Pearson chi-squared test of independence.
- The null hypothesis is that the rows and columns are independent.
- The alternative hypothesis is that there is an association between the rows and the columns.
death.tab <- matrix(c(2040,367,327,149,60,48,288,25,70,703,
197,252,425,62,88,121,72,79), byrow=TRUE, nrow=6)
rownames(death.tab) <- c("1955-65", "1970", "1970-71", "1975-77", "1977-78",
"1980")
colnames(death.tab) <- c("Confirmed", "Inaccurate", "Incorrect")
addmargins(death.tab) Confirmed Inaccurate Incorrect Sum
1955-65 2040 367 327 2734
1970 149 60 48 257
1970-71 288 25 70 383
1975-77 703 197 252 1152
1977-78 425 62 88 575
1980 121 72 79 272
Sum 3726 783 864 5373To see the potential heterogeneity across rows in these data, we should perhaps also look at the proportions of autopsies in each of the three accuracy categories for each study.
Confirmed Inaccurate Incorrect Sum
1955-65 74.6 13.4 12.0 100
1970 58.0 23.3 18.7 100
1970-71 75.2 6.5 18.3 100
1975-77 61.0 17.1 21.9 100
1977-78 73.9 10.8 15.3 100
1980 44.5 26.5 29.0 100In three of the studies, approximately 3/4 of the results were confirmed. In the other three, 45%, 58% and 61% were confirmed. It looks like there’s a fair amount of variation in results across studies. To see if this is true, formally, we run Pearson’s chi-square test of independence, where the null hypothesis is that the rows and columns are independent, and the alternative hypothesis is that there is an association between the rows and the columns.
Pearson's Chi-squared test
data: death.tab
X-squared = 209.09, df = 10, p-value < 2.2e-16The chi-square test statistic is 200 on 10 degrees of freedom, yielding p < 0.0001.
Autopsies are not performed at random; in fact, many are done because the cause of death listed on the certificate is uncertain. What problems may arise if you attempt to use the results of these studies to make inference about the population as a whole?
25.4 Three-Way Tables: A 2x2xK Table and a Mantel-Haenszel Analysis
The material I discuss in this section is attributable to Jeff Simonoff and his book Analyzing Categorical Data. The example is taken from Section 8.1 of that book.
A three-dimensional or three-way table of counts often reflects a situation where the rows and columns refer to variables whose association is of primary interest to us, and the third factor (a layer, or strata) describes a control variable, whose effect on our primary association is something we are controlling for in the analysis.
25.4.1 Smoking and Mortality in the UK
In the early 1970s and then again 20 years later, in Whickham, United Kingdom, surveys yielded the following relationship between whether a person was a smoker at the time of the original survey and whether they were still alive 20 years later.
whickham1 <- matrix(c(502, 230, 443, 139), byrow=TRUE, nrow=2)
rownames(whickham1) <- c("Non-Smoker", "Smoker")
colnames(whickham1) <- c("Alive", "Dead")
addmargins(whickham1) Alive Dead Sum
Non-Smoker 502 230 732
Smoker 443 139 582
Sum 945 369 1314Here’s the two-by-two table analysis.
2 by 2 table analysis:
------------------------------------------------------
Outcome : Alive
Comparing : Non-Smoker vs. Smoker
Alive Dead P(Alive) 95% conf. interval
Non-Smoker 502 230 0.6858 0.6512 0.7184
Smoker 443 139 0.7612 0.7248 0.7941
95% conf. interval
Relative Risk: 0.9010 0.8427 0.9633
Sample Odds Ratio: 0.6848 0.5353 0.8761
Conditional MLE Odds Ratio: 0.6850 0.5307 0.8822
Probability difference: -0.0754 -0.1230 -0.0266
Exact P-value: 0.0030
Asymptotic P-value: 0.0026
------------------------------------------------------There is a detectable association between smoking and mortality, but it isn’t the one you might expect.
- The odds ratio is 0.68, implying that the odds of having lived were only 68% as large for non-smokers as for smokers.
- Does that mean that smoking is good for you?
Not likely. There is a key “lurking” variable here - a variable that is related to both smoking and mortality that is obscuring the actual relationship - namely, age.
25.4.2 The whickham data with age, too
The table below gives the mortality experience separated into subtables by initial age group.
age <- c(rep("18-24", 4), rep("25-34", 4),
rep("35-44", 4), rep("45-54", 4),
rep("55-64", 4), rep("65-74", 4),
rep("75+", 4))
smoking <- c(rep(c("Smoker", "Smoker", "Non-Smoker", "Non-Smoker"), 7))
status <- c(rep(c("Alive", "Dead"), 14))
counts <- c(53, 2, 61, 1, 121, 3, 152, 5,
95, 14, 114, 7, 103, 27, 66, 12,
64, 51, 81, 40, 7, 29, 28, 101,
0, 13, 0, 64)
whickham2 <- tibble(smoking, status, age, counts) %>%
mutate(smoking = factor(smoking),
status = factor(status),
age = factor(age))# A tibble: 28 x 4
smoking status age counts
<fct> <fct> <fct> <dbl>
1 Smoker Alive 18-24 53
2 Smoker Dead 18-24 2
3 Non-Smoker Alive 18-24 61
4 Non-Smoker Dead 18-24 1
5 Smoker Alive 25-34 121
6 Smoker Dead 25-34 3
7 Non-Smoker Alive 25-34 152
8 Non-Smoker Dead 25-34 5
9 Smoker Alive 35-44 95
10 Smoker Dead 35-44 14
# ... with 18 more rows, , age = 18-24
status
smoking Alive Dead
Non-Smoker 61 1
Smoker 53 2
, , age = 25-34
status
smoking Alive Dead
Non-Smoker 152 5
Smoker 121 3
, , age = 35-44
status
smoking Alive Dead
Non-Smoker 114 7
Smoker 95 14
, , age = 45-54
status
smoking Alive Dead
Non-Smoker 66 12
Smoker 103 27
, , age = 55-64
status
smoking Alive Dead
Non-Smoker 81 40
Smoker 64 51
, , age = 65-74
status
smoking Alive Dead
Non-Smoker 28 101
Smoker 7 29
, , age = 75+
status
smoking Alive Dead
Non-Smoker 0 64
Smoker 0 13The sample odds ratios for remaining Alive comparing Non-Smokers to Smokers for each of these subtables (except the last one, where the odds ratio is undefined because of the zero cells) are calculated using the usual cross-product ratio approach, which yields the following results.
| Age Group | Odds Ratio |
|---|---|
| 18-24 | 2.30 |
| 25-34 | 0.75 |
| 35-44 | 2.40 |
| 45-54 | 1.44 |
| 55-64 | 1.61 |
| 65-74 | 1.15 |
| 75+ | Undefined |
Thus, for all age groups except 25-34 year olds, not smoking appears to be associated with higher odds of remaining alive.
Why? Not surprisingly, there is a strong association between age and mortality, with mortality rates being very low for young people (2.5% for 18-24 year olds) and increasing to 100% for 75+ year olds.
There is also an association between age and smoking, with smoking rates peaking in the 45-54 year old range and then falling off rapidly. In particular, respondents who were 65 and older at the time of the first survey had very low smoking rates (25.4%) but very high mortality rates (85.5%). Smoking was hardly the cause, however, since even among the 65-74 year olds mortality was higher among smokers (80.6%) than it was among non-smokers (78.3%). A flat version of the table (ftable in R) can help us with these calculations.
age 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
smoking status
Non-Smoker Alive 61 152 114 66 81 28 0
Dead 1 5 7 12 40 101 64
Smoker Alive 53 121 95 103 64 7 0
Dead 2 3 14 27 51 29 1325.4.3 Checking Assumptions: The Woolf test
We can also obtain a test (using the woolf_test function, in the vcd library) to see if the common odds ratio estimated in the Mantel-Haenszel procedure is reasonable for all age groups. In other words, the Woolf test is a test of the assumption of homogeneous odds ratios across the six age groups.
If the Woolf test is significant, it suggests that the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test is not appropriate, since the odds ratios for smoking and mortality vary too much in the sub-tables by age group. Here, we have the following log odds ratios (estimated using conditional maximum likelihood, rather than cross-product ratios) and the associated Woolf test.
log odds ratios for smoking and status by age
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74
0.65018114 -0.22473479 0.84069420 0.34608770 0.47421763 0.09933253
75+
-1.56397554
Woolf-test on Homogeneity of Odds Ratios (no 3-Way assoc.)
data: whick_t2
X-squared = 3.2061, df = 6, p-value = 0.7826As you can see, the Woolf test is not close to our usual standards for statistically detectable results, implying the common odds ratio is at least potentially reasonable for all age groups (or at least the ones under ages 75, where some data are available.)
25.4.4 The Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel Test
So, the marginal table looking at smoking and mortality combining all age groups isn’t the most meaningful summary of the relationship between smoking and mortality. Instead, we need to look at the conditional association of smoking and mortality, given age, to address our interests.
The null hypothesis would be that, in the population, smoking and mortality are independent within strata formed by age group. In other words, \(H_0\) requires that smoking be of no value in predicting mortality once age has been accounted for.
The alternative hypothesis would be that, in the population, smoking and mortality are associated within the strata formed by age group. In other words, \(H_A\) requires that smoking be of at least some value in predicting mortality even after age has been accounted for.
We can consider the evidence that helps us choose between these two hypotheses with a Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test, which is obtained in R through the mantelhaen.test function. This test requires us to assume that, in the population and within each age group, the smoking-mortality odds ratio is the same. Essentially, this means that the association of smoking with mortality is the same for older and younger people.
Mantel-Haenszel chi-squared test with continuity correction
data: whick_t2
Mantel-Haenszel X-squared = 5.435, df = 1, p-value = 0.01974
alternative hypothesis: true common odds ratio is not equal to 1
90 percent confidence interval:
1.143198 2.041872
sample estimates:
common odds ratio
1.52783 - The Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test statistic is a bit larger than 5 (after a continuity correction) leading to a p value of 0.02, indicating strong rejection of the null hypothesis of conditional independence of smoking and survival given age.
- The estimated common conditional odds ratio is 1.53. This implies that (adjusting for age) being a non-smoker is associated with 53% higher odds of being alive 20 years later than being a smoker.
- A 90% confidence interval for that common odds ratio is (1.14, 2.04), reinforcing rejection of the null hypothesis of conditional independence (where the odds ratio would be 1).
25.4.5 Without the Continuity Correction
By default, R presents the Mantel-Haenszel test with a continuity correction, when used for a 2x2xK table. In virtually all cases, go ahead and do this, but as you can see below, the difference it makes in this case is modest.
Mantel-Haenszel chi-squared test without continuity correction
data: whick_t2
Mantel-Haenszel X-squared = 5.8443, df = 1, p-value = 0.01563
alternative hypothesis: true common odds ratio is not equal to 1
90 percent confidence interval:
1.143198 2.041872
sample estimates:
common odds ratio
1.52783